Johnson and Johnson: Let it Dip to a 3% Yield

-Seven Year Average Revenue Growth Rate: 4.2% Dividend Stock Report
-Seven Year Average EPS Growth Rate: 1.6%
-Seven Year Average Dividend Growth Rate: 9.4%
-Current Dividend Yield: 2.83%
-Balance Sheet Strength: Perfect

The company has a good foundation for growth after a difficult few years, but the current price in the low $90’s leaves little or no margin of safety.

Overview

Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) was founded in 1886 and today is the largest and among the most diverse of health care companies in the world. The company consists of three segments: Medical Devices, Pharmaceuticals, and Consumer.

Medical Devices and Diagnostics Segment
This segment was responsible for $27.4 billion in sales in 2012, which is up 6.4% from the previous year. Orthopaedics is the largest unit, accounting for over a quarter of the sales from this segment. Surgical care is the next largest unit, accounting for nearly a quarter of segment sales. The remaining units are vision care, diabetes care, specialty surgery, cardiovascular care, diagnostics, and infection.

Pharmaceuticals Segment
Johnson and Johnson brought in $25.4 billion in sales for 2012 with pharmaceuticals, and this figure was up 4% from the previous year. Immunology is the largest pharmaceutical unit (nearly a third of segment sales), followed by neuroscience (about a quarter of segment sales), infectious diseases, oncology, and other.

Consumer Segment
Consumer sales were $14.4 billion in 2012, and this figure was down 2.9% from the previous year. OTC is the largest unit accounting for nearly a third of segment sales. Skin care is another big unit, accounting for a quarter of segment sales. Other units are baby care, oral care, women’s health, and wound care.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings: 20.7
Price to Free Cash Flow: 21.2
Price to Book: 3.8

Revenue

Johnson and Johnson Revenue
(Chart Source: DividendMonk.com)

The revenue growth rate over the latest seven year period was about 4.2% per year on average. Over the trailing twelve month period, the company has sustained strong revenue growth, going from $67.2 billion in 2012 to about $70 billion over the last four quarters.

Earnings and Dividends

Johnson and Johnson Dividends
(Chart Source: DividendMonk.com)

The EPS growth rate over this period was only 1.6%. But, EPS for the trailing twelve month period is much higher than it was in 2012, and using that adjusted time period, the EPS growth rate is 2.7%. Overall, JNJ has had weak earnings growth.

The dividend growth rate over this period has been a solid 9.4% per year, which when combined with a yield of 3% or so represents very solid long-term returns. The dividend payout ratio from earnings however, has increased over the last decade from comfortably under 40% to nearly 60%.

Approximate historical dividend yield at beginning of each year:

Year Yield
Current 2.9%
2013 3.5%
2012 3.5%
2011 3.5%
2010 3.0%
2009 3.0%
2008 2.5%
2007 2.2%
2006 2.1%
2005 1.8%

The yield for Johnson and Johnson is currently at a low point. Although JNJ boosted its dividend for 2013, the fact that the stock price roared from the low $70’s to the low $90’s during the year to date, has increased the valuation and decreased the current dividend yield.

How Does JNJ Spend Its Cash?

During the fiscal years of 2010, 2011, and 2012, the company brought in nearly $38 billion in free cash flow. Over the same period, the company paid about $18.5 billion in dividends, another $18.2 billion on share repurchases, and about $8.5 billion on net acquisitions.

Balance Sheet

Johnson and Johnson is one of only a very few non-financial companies that maintains a perfect AAA credit rating.

The total debt/equity ratio is about 21%, and less than a third of existing shareholder equity consists of goodwill. The existing amount of total debt is less than 1.2x the annual net income figure, and the interest coverage ratio is 35x, which is extremely well-covered.

The company generates positive free cash flow each year from a highly diverse sales base, and often it’s a higher figure than net income.

Investment Thesis

The company has started fresh with a relatively new CEO (of which there have only been 7 in over 120 years of operating history) with substantial industry experience, and with several difficult years behind the company, the next few years look brighter.

Johnson and Johnson is often viewed as the quintessential blue chip stock. The combination of a particularly strong balance sheet, five consecutive decades of annual dividend growth without a miss, strong free cash flow generation, and a highly diverse sales base, is hard to compare to any other company.

Most segments have various durable economic advantages which help to protect their cash flows. For example, the pharmaceutical segment, like other pharmaceutical companies, uses a series of patents to maintain a consistent pipeline and portfolio of patented drugs, and because of their size, they can fund the largest of R&D projects or they can acquire drugs for their pipeline. This makes their pipeline rather consistent from year to year. The medical devices segment is similar, with advanced patented devices created from one of the largest medical device segments in the world. The consumers segment is a bit different in that it relies on brand strength. Each of the three segments is supported by the others, so a weak pharmaceutical period can be balanced by strong medical device sales during that time, or as we saw in previous years, a weak consumer segment can be balanced by the pharmaceuticals and medical devices. Most of JNJ’s products are protected from recessions due to their rather necessary nature, with the exception of some of their over-the-counter products which are vulnerable to market share losses to private label products during those times.

Risks

Although the company is large and well-diversified, the complex nature of the company results in numerous risks. 2010 was a particularly difficult year for the company, as they recalled 43 over-the-counter medications due to systemic quality control issues in their subsidiary that is responsible for this lineup of products, recalled hip replacements due to a revision ratio that was far above acceptable levels, and faced a shareholder lawsuit regarding these quality issues and other aspects of company governance.

The pharmaceuticals segment, like any company in the industry, has pipeline risk. It can take billions of dollars to develop or acquire a blockbuster drug, and a weak pipeline of upcoming drugs can mean that sales will be lackluster in upcoming years. Unexpected events of drugs failing approval or showing to be ineffective can be a major blow to the segment. Currently the pipeline is strong, and unlike pure pharmaceutical companies, Johnson and Johnson buffers this risk with their other business segments.

Litigation is a constant risk for any large health care company, because so many lives are affected so dramatically. Products can mean the difference between life and death for patients, and something like a hip replacement that has a revision rate of over 10% compared to the typical and acceptable 1% can mean major financial losses, recalls, and/or litigation.

Conclusion and Valuation

There’s little doubt that overall, JNJ is a particularly strong company. Just about every metric is spectacular from the balance sheet to the cash flow generation to the diversification to the dividend safety. Still, the company does have downsides.

Growth has been poor in the recent several years due to the recalls which were acting as anchors on profitability, as well as the financial crisis and recession to a limited extent. On one hand, the fact that the company weathered a cluster of problems with flat sales base and earnings base shows the strength of the company. On the other hand, several years of poor growth does have a major negative impact on shareholder returns.

With a strong pipeline and with better quality oversight in place, the company is in a good state for growth going forward. The one problem, of course, is valuation. Johnson and Johnson outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 10% year to date, and the S&P 500 itself outperformed its average growth rate during 2013 to reach record highs. Last year in the JNJ stock analysis report, I stated similar views about JNJ- that it was in a good position for growth (which based on revenue growth has been true), but at that time the stock was in the high $60’s and I was cautiously optimistic about it being a buying opportunity at that price.

Now at $93/share, we’re looking at a similar situation with a much higher valuation. Using the earnings multiple valuation approach, if the company grows EPS by 8% per year over the next 7 years on average, and we place an earnings multiple of 18x on the stock at the end of that seventh year, then the price will be around $138. The investor will have received about $26 in dividends per share, and if reinvested, can expect another $8 or so in value. The seventh year value therefore would be $184, which is roughly double the current value. This translates into a rate of return of about 9%, which is not bad on a conservative dividend payer.

But that doesn’t leave any margin of safety. If EPS growth averages only 7%, the rate of return under the same circumstances would be down to a bit over 8%, and if the earnings multiple at that time is 16 instead of 18, the annual rate of return is down to about 7%.

In conclusion, I believe that few investors would be disappointed several years from now with a purchase of JNJ stock today, but I don’t think it’s in a good position to outperform unless estimates use very optimistic growth estimates. So, the price is fair but not ideal, in my view. The yield is historically low for the company at 2.83%, and I believe a wiser play would be to wait for the growth to catch up with the valuation and see if the stock becomes available at a lower earnings multiple of under 20, and with a yield of over 3%.

Full Disclosure: As of this writing, I am long JNJ.
You can see my dividend portfolio here.

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Aflac: Still Undervalued, Still with Risk

-Revenue Growth Rate: 8.5% Dividend Stock Report
-EPS Growth Rate: 11.1%
-Book Value Growth Rate: 11.6%
-Dividend Growth Rate: 17.2%
-Current Dividend Yield: 2.23%
-Financial Strength: AA-, Aa3

Aflac’s core performance has been remarkable over the last decade, and they have improved their financial condition compared to last year. Concerns over a potential Japanese default are keeping the stock valuation low.

Overview

AFLAC Incorporated (NYSE: AFL) is a large international supplemental insurer. They provide cash that can cover several types of expenses to those receiving payouts due to illness or deaths. This is supplementary to primary medical insurance which helps cover medical expenses but leaves other expenses without a solution. This Fortune 500 company was founded in 1955, and has a large presence in Japan and the US. AFLAC stands for the American Family Life Assurance Company.

The company made a big move in Japan in the 1970s by selling insurance for cancers when people were becoming particularly mindful of cancer. Decades later, approximately three-quarters of Aflac’s diverse premiums now come from Japan.

Aflac primarily targets places of employment for its insurance products, rather than individuals outside of work. The company offers plans to employers that allow them to provide Aflac insurance as part of their benefits package to employees without paying any cost themselves.

The premise behind an insurance company is that they spread risk out over a wide number of people and businesses. They collect premiums (payments) from clients and in return those clients are covered in case of a serious loss. From an insurance business standpoint, it’s ideal to collect more in premiums than you pay out for losses. This is not the primary form of earnings, though. An insurance business, after collecting all of the premiums, holds a great deal of assets that, over time, are paid out for client losses. An insurance company constantly receives premiums and pays out for losses, so as long as they are prudent with their business, they get to constantly keep this large sum of stored-up assets. As any investor reading this knows, a great sum of money can be used to generate income from investments, and that’s how an insurance company really makes money. Aflac invests its stored up collection of assets primarily in fixed income securities to receive upwards of $3.4 billion in annual investment income.

Ratios

Price to Earnings: 8.7
Price to Book: 2.1

Revenue

Aflac Revenue
(Chart Source: DividendMonk.com)

Aflac has had particularly strong core business performance over the last decade. Revenues from both premium income and investment income have increased every year for at least the last ten consecutive years, although this is so far not the case for the trailing twelve month period and it appears that the streak will be broken. The annualized revenue growth rate over the last seven years was 8.5%.

Earnings and Dividends

Aflac Dividends
(Chart Source: DividendMonk.com)

Aflac has had somewhat erratic EPS numbers, but the average growth over this seven year period was 11.1% per year. EPS spiked to $7.20 over current the trailing twelve month period, which the chart doesn’t show. The company’s operating earnings per share, which excludes yen currency effects, impairments, and certain other items, has increased every year for over two consecutive decades.

As for the dividends, Aflac has increased the dividend for thirty consecutive years. The payout ratio is rather low, at under 20%. Despite the low payout ratio, the dividend yield at 2.23% is at least higher than the average S&P 500 yield, because the stock valuation is so low. The yield was closer to 3% last year before the stock price increased substantially. The payout ratio is actually lower than it was 5 years ago because earnings have strengthened recently and the dividend was only increased at a moderate rate, so I’d expect the dividend increases over the next few years to be rather generous.

Approximate Historical Dividend Yield at Beginning of Each Year:

Year Yield
Current 2.23%
2013 2.7%
2012 3.0%
2011 2.1%
2010 2.3%
2009 2.1%
2008 1.3%
2007 1.4%
2006 0.9%
2005 1.0%

As can be seen, the dividend increased quickly earlier in the decade but then began increasing more slowly during the worldwide financial crisis. This leaves extra room for dividend growth over the next few years, assuming their Japanese market remains reasonably strong.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet dynamics have changed during the previous few years. The company’s large investment portfolio had significant exposure to some of the most financially troubled European countries, and this resulted in billion-dollar capital losses in the peak years of the problem. Aflac has managed that situation well, but now the issue that’s keeping the stock valuation low is their exposure to Japanese default risk.

Realized Investment Gains (Losses) By Year, in Millions:

Year Gain / (Loss)
Trailing 12 Months $471
2012 ($349)
2011 ($1,552)
2010 ($422)
2009 ($1,212)
2008 ($1,007)
2007 $28
2006 $79
2005 $262

Gains and Losses from the portfolio were a fairly minor portion of the business until 2008 when the financial crisis began showing itself. With over $1 billion in impairments in certain years, this kept the stock price and the stock valuation low.

Investment Thesis

Aflac has a notable business model. Rather than targeting individuals, Aflac insurance agents target businesses. Aflac works with employers to give employees the option to purchase Aflac Insurance via payroll deductions, similar to their other benefits. This “cluster-selling” technique keeps costs comparatively low, and gives the company a major competitive price advantage. It creates a win-win situation with employers it does business with.

In addition to having a solid distribution network for its insurance products, Aflac has a strong brand name that is well known in Japan and US, with the duck mascot. The brand is stronger than most other insurers, especially in Japan.

Plus, its insurance is rather resistant to health care reform or other insurance regulation (although not untouched). The company provides supplemental insurance; cash to people when they need it most.

The company has been recognized as one of the “World’s Most Ethical Companies” by Ethisphere Magazine, and also one of the best places to work. It has won similar awards from a variety of sources.

Aflac’s US exposure is significantly smaller than its Japanese exposure despite being a US-based company. Their customer retention rates are not as high in the US as they are in Japan, but the other side to this is that there is more growth and improvement opportunity.

Risks

Aflac, despite superior performance over the last decade, has faced some of the harshest macroeconomic problems there are. During the financial crisis, they had several billion dollars worth of exposure to bonds from the European countries that were being bailed out, which resulted in investment losses. Over the last year, this risk has shifted away from Europe and to Japan.

Japan is one of the world’s largest economies, and has the highest ratio of public debt to GDP out of any country in the world. The ratio is well over 200%, which is more than twice that of the United States. This has historically not been a problem for Japan for the last couple of decades because the strong economy kept interest rates low. As long as the interest rates were low, the debt was easy to maintain. (In comparison, those European countries with lower debt-to-GDP ratios began entering default during the financial crisis because investors lost confidence in the economies of those countries and interest rates spiked to unworkable levels.) The interest rates in Japan are still very low, so there’s still not a current issue. But, it has become increasingly clear to investors that Japan is heading to a problem. The debt is extremely high, and the economy is faltering from the declining and aging population. A declining population makes economic growth extremely difficult to obtain and can affect housing prices with extra supply (essentially the same problem as the United States faced but without the benefit of population growth which can eventually fix problems of over supply), while the aging population puts more stress on government programs and on younger taxpayers.

Aflac does most of its business in Japan and holds a considerable portion of its assets in Japanese debt. The extreme case of a Japanese default would be extremely damaging to Aflac. Quantitatively, about 40% of Aflac’s $100 billion+ investment portfolio is held in Japanese Government Bonds. That’s the portion that’s at risk if there were to ever be a government default, and additional risk would likely come from a reduction of premiums even in moderate scenarios without a default but with a debt/economic crisis.

Conclusion and Valuation

Wow, what a run. I published a report on Aflac 14 months ago suggesting that the price of under $46 at the time was appealing, even using an aggressive 12% discount rate, and the stock is now up to nearly $63. With dividends added, that’s a nearly 40% rate of return on paper in 14 months.

Dividend investors, however, are interested in long-term growth. The forward-looking question is whether the stock price remains attractively priced, or whether this run-up has taken the attractiveness out of the stock. To be sure, the current low P/E ratio of under 9 is very low, and lower than the historical average of the company. This makes their share buybacks particularly effective at boosting EPS. So, the share price increase has not been from an increase in valuation, but rather from an increase in reported earnings and a flat valuation on those increasing earnings, which translated into a substantially increased stock price.

To estimate Aflac’s fair value, we can do a two stage Dividend Discount Model. If the company grows EPS by an average of 9% going forward, which is below historical growth, then the dividend can increase at a rate of 12% per year over the next ten years to increase the payout ratio to only 30% at the tenth year. After that, the dividend could be assumed to grow at the same rate as EPS. Applying an aggressive 12% discount rate (the target rate of return), the calculated fair price is nearly $65/share, compared to the current actual price of under $63/share. In reality, EPS growth is not going to be smooth and it’s impossible to say what level management will want the payout ratio to be in ten years even assuming slowing of EPS growth. The point is, even assuming a slowing of growth, the company can be calculated to be at an attractive value for a 12% rate of return.

In a more conservative scenario, if the company grows the dividend by only 10% per year over the next 10 years followed by 7% thereafter, which is considerably below what has been typical for the company, and a less aggressive 10% discount rate (target rate of return) is used, then the calculated fair price is just under $64, which is comparable to the current price of about $63.

So, in a variety of scenarios, if Aflac continues operating normally, the stock is noticeably undervalued. The combination of dividend yield and dividend growth, with 30 years of consecutive annual dividend growth, is one of the better combinations you’ll find on the market.

Clearly, this undervalued status is due to very real concerns about the Japanese economy. If Japan has a default or otherwise has a severe economic contraction, all bets are off. EPS growth, and consequently dividend growth, will run into walls if Japan defaults or enters a more tangible economic crisis, and the portfolio value will be at risk. Aflac is considered a short opportunity for those that are bearish on the Japanese default risk, with some predictions of the stock price being cut in half over the next year.

For this reason, I continue to view Aflac as a dividend investment that has an above average risk profile and above average potential returns if those risks don’t unfold. Most investor portfolios do not have substantial direct exposure to Japan, so holding Aflac stock may be a way to diversify into a concerned region if you’re not as bearish on the economy of Japan as some are. Aflac at this time does not appear to be a good candidate for a core holding if you’re concerned about the Japanese economic risk, but should provide above average returns if the more bullish or optimistic views of Japan end up being correct.

Full Disclosure: As of this writing, I have no position in AFL.
You can see my stock portfolio here.

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Chevron: Growth From Australian LNG

-Seven Year Average Revenue Growth Rate: <3% Dividend Stock Report
-Seven Year Average EPS Growth Rate: 10.7%
-Seven Year Average Dividend Growth Rate: 10.5%
-Current Dividend Yield: 3.26%
-Balance Sheet Strength: Perfect

Chevron appears to represent a decent buying opportunity at this time in the mid-$120’s.

Overview

Founded in 1879, Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is currently one of the largest oil and gas companies in the world. The company is involved in almost every type of energy business available.

Exploration and Production
In 2012, Chevron produced an average of 2.61 million barrels of oil per day, and at the end of the year their proved oil-equivalent reserves were 11.35 billion barrels. The company has exploration and production operations all over the world, and tends to particularly specialize in deep sea drilling.

Gas and Midstream
Chevron has a strong vertically integrated natural gas business. They’re involved in liquefaction, pipelines, marine transport, marketing/trading, and power generation. The company has 160 billion cubic feet of natural gas resources.

Downstream and Chemicals
In 2012, Chevron processed 1.7 million barrels of oil per day on average. This results in fuels, lubricants, and petrochemicals. There are over 16,000 stations selling Chevron products.

Technology
The company operates technology centers in the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia where they develop technology for use in the other business areas.

Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
Chevron is one of the largest global producers of geothermal energy, and is also involved in the solar energy industry and the non-food biofuel industry. Chevron Energy Solutions installs large solar arrays for clients.

Valuation Metrics

Price to Earnings: 10
Price to Free Cash Flow: Highly Variable
Price to Book: 1.7

Revenue

Chevron Revenue
(Chart Source: DividendMonk.com)

Chevron has somewhat erratic revenue growth, with an average of under 3% per year. The growth comes from production quantity as well as the current pricing of their commodities and end-products.

Earnings and Dividends

Chevron Dividends
(Chart Source: DividendMonk.com)

Chevron has enjoyed 10.7% average EPS growth over the last seven years, although these numbers were also made erratic during the financial crisis. This is fairly strong EPS growth, considering that the company also pays a higher than average dividend yield to shareholders.

The dividend growth rate over the same period was about 10.5% per year, and so the dividend payout ratio has remained flat at around 25%. The earnings of oil companies tend to be cyclical, so they keep payout ratios on the lower end so that the dividend can be grown even during the barely profitable periods. The current dividend yield is a healthy 3.26%, and the company recently achieved 25 years of consecutive annual dividend growth.

Approximate Historical Dividend Yield at Beginning of Each Year:

Year Yield
Current 3.26%
2013 3.3%
2012 3.0%
2011 3.2%
2010 3.6%
2009 3.4%
2008 2.4%
2007 2.9%
2006 3.1%

 

How Does Chevron Spend Its Cash?

Chevron brought in over $34 billion in free cash flow cumulatively during the fiscal years of 2010, 2011, and 2012. Over the same time period, the company spent about $3 billion on acquisitions, nearly $19 billion on dividends, and about $4 billion on share repurchases.

Balance Sheet

Chevron’s balance sheet is about as strong as they come. Total debt/equity is only 14%, and the amount of goodwill on the balance sheet is negligible compared to equity. The debt/income ratio is less than 1x, and the interest coverage ratio is extremely high. Not counting other long term liabilities, there is more cash sitting on the balance sheet than there is total short term and long term debt.

Balance Sheet Expansion

Year Total Assets Total Liabilities Shareholder Equity
Current $244.0 billion $101.2 billion $142.8 billion
2012 $233.0 billion $96.5 billion $136.5 billion
2011 $209.5 billion $88.1 billion $121.4 billion
2010 $184.8 billion $79.7 billion $105.1 billion
2009 $164.6 billion $72.7 billion $91.9 billion
2008 $161.1 billion $74.5 billion $86.6 billion
2007 $148.8 billion $71.7 billion $77.1 billion
2006 $132.6 billion $63.7 billion $68.9 billion

Shareholder Equity has grown by an average of 11% annually over this seven-year period.

Investment Thesis

Chevron is constantly developing new upstream resources, but the key growth over the next several years will be from Australia. The company’s LNG production is going to more than double in the next four years, primarily due to the Gorgon (operational in 2015) and Wheatstone (operational in 2016) projects in Australia. Gorgon had budget overruns but these challenges have been worked through, and the project is now two-thirds complete. The other two main sources of growth will be from deepwater drilling and from shale production.

Risks

Large oil companies have among the largest and broadest set of risks for any investment.

There is an ever-present risk of an environmental catastrophe, which can lead to up to ten-figure lawsuits. Chevron is still dealing with the nearly $20 billion litigation risk related to operations in Ecuador, which were part of the Texaco acquisition in the 90’s. Recent court decisions have generally favored Chevron on these matters.

More regularly, the company has to deal with more commonplace instances of litigation, changing oil and other commodity prices, and managing its oil and gas reserves in a competitive environment driven by scarcity. The company has reported 112% reserve replacement rates on average over the last five years, meaning that reserves are being maintained and grown at the current time.

Conclusion and Valuation

Chevron consistently adapts to changing energy needs, with a currently strong presence in deepwater drilling, moves towards shale production, and huge investments in LNG, along with smaller operations like Chevron’s Energy Solutions (solar) business. The company has a 25 year history of paying growing dividends, and currently offers a reasonable dividend yield of over 3% with a low and safe payout ratio.

Based on a two-stage Dividend Discount Model, assuming a 10% discount rate, if the company grows its dividend by 9% per year for the next decade and 7% per year thereafter, then the calculated fair price for the stock today is over $147. The current price of under $123 gives a more than 15% margin of safety for these estimated figures, leading to what appears to be a reasonable buying opportunity in a diversified and financially stable dividend-paying company.

Full Disclosure: As of this writing, I am long CVX.
You can see my dividend portfolio here.

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