Five of the Strongest Companies Raising Dividends

Without a significant promotion, relatively view people could say they got a 7.3% raise this year.

However, that’s the combined average 2012 dividend income increase from these five of some of the strongest dividend payers around. And considering they offer an average dividend yield of over 3%, that’s not so bad.

These five businesses have fairly strong balance sheets, are some of the largest players in their industries, and have 25 or more years of consecutive annual dividend growth. Many of the bluest of blue chips can potentially have their dividend growth taken for granted since it occurs like clockwork, so it’s good to observe and recognize raises from some of the strongest dividend payers.

The Coca Cola Company (KO)

Topping this particular list with 8.5% annual dividend growth this year is Coca Cola. Sporting only a 2.67% dividend yield, it’s a little light for current income (it is, after all, supporting a P/E of around 20), but the company has strong finances, among the widest of moats thanks to its distribution system and brand strength, and very consistent dividend growth for about five decades.

The dividend income is well-covered by earnings, with a dividend payout ratio from earnings of around 55%. The balance sheet has been a bit strained from the bottler acquisition from not too long ago, but it holds well enough, with a strong interest coverage ratio of over 25.

A key thing to take into account, in my view, about Coke, is that while their reach extends quite so far, it’s still doesn’t have near the market penetration in some of the world’s most populous nations as it does in North America.

From the last Coca Cola Analysis:

Although the Coca Cola Company already has worldwide distribution, their potential in emerging markets is substantial. The average per-capita annual consumption of Coca Cola products is 89 servings according to their own information. The nation with the highest annual consumption is Mexico, with 675 annual 8 ounce servings per capita. The United States is fourth on the list, with 394. The consumption in China and India is only 34 and 11 respectfully, and these are the two most populous countries in the world. Other high population areas such as Nigeria, Pakistan, and Indonesia only consume 28, 15, and 13 servings per year.

So from a health perspective, this probably isn’t good news. But from a financial standpoint, it looks like Coca Cola’s year-after-year growth shows little sign of stopping. That being said, with their valuation where it is now, I’d look for dips before putting more capital towards their shares.

3M Company (MMM)

One might not expect it, but some of the companies with the longest streaks of dividend increases are semi-cyclical engineering businesses- companies like Emerson Electric, Dover Corporation, Illinois Tool Works, Leggett and Platt, and 3M Company. 3M offers a 2.77% dividend yield, with 7.3% annual dividend growth for 2012.

The company’s six business segments are:
Industrial and Transportation
Health Care
Consumer and Office
Displays and Graphics
Safety, Security, and Protection
Electro and Communications

To get more specific, from the 2012 3M Analysis, here are some of their targeted growth areas:

-Water purification
-Environmental protection, sustainability, renewable energy
-Health care in both developed and developing countries
-Automotive OEM growth
-International/Emerging consumer products
-Increased and sustained unemployment in the developed world
-A long term increase in petty crime resulting from economic problems, and 3M’s corresponding safety, security, and protection businesses
-A trend towards worker protection in emerging markets
-The continued trend toward electronic and software interaction, robotics, communication, and globalization

Overall, 3M also offers one of the strongest balance sheets on this list, with total debt/equity under 30%, and an interest coverage ratio of over 30. I’d look for a price dip of 10% or more before committing to a position, however. With Eurozone uncertainty, we may get a bigger broader dip than that.

Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)

Johnson and Johnson offers the highest dividend yield on this list, at 3.83%. I’ve been looking towards health care as a fairly decent area for long-term investment, and yet since the recession, their stock prices have been relatively flat. But flat stock prices and sustainable continued dividend growth means bigger yields, and if JNJ boosts the dividend next year by the same rate as this year, and the stock price is still the same, it’ll breach a 4% yield.

Although many investors have not been impressed by company management over the last few years, at least their drug pipeline is strong, and their areas of operation remain as diverse as ever in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer products.

From the 2011 JNJ Analysis:

Johnson and Johnson has a strong presence in emerging markets, including the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Double digit emerging market growth helps to offset lackluster performance in developed countries, and over the long-term, many developed countries have an aging population that will continue to require large amounts of medical treatment.

As far as comparing balance sheets, Johnson and Johnson is the one on this list that has an AAA rating, and based on balance sheet metrics such as interest coverage, debt/equity, and overall diversification, it looks deserved.

Procter and Gamble (PG)

Much like Johnson and Johnson, PG’s performance over the last few years has been lackluster. The 50+ years of consecutive dividend growth are appreciated, but it’s the future that matters. Can this $180 billion company showcase another half-century of dividend increases going forward, or is it running out of steam?

The company currently offers a 3.50% dividend yield and 7% recent dividend growth for 2012. The dividend certainly looks safe for now, since less than 2/3rds of earnings are being paid out as dividends and the balance sheet is respectable enough, with interest being covered more than 15 times over by operating income, and with a very manageable total debt/equity situation.

From the 2011 PG Analysis:

At it’s core, Procter and Gamble is a brand management company. Their products are often the best around, but their brands just as important. The company owns 23 billion-dollar brands and 20 half-billion-dollar brands.

Developing markets are playing a larger and larger role in the growth of the company, accounting for 29% of sales in 2007 and 32% of sales in 2009. The company has over 4.2 billion customers, and targets 5 billion by 2015.

I view PG as being reasonably valued at the current time, but am not particularly excited about its long-term prospects compared to some smaller businesses, or some higher-yielding businesses. Procter and Gamble is currently undergoing multi-billion-dollar restructuring, including several divestitures, in order to reignite EPS growth. Both JNJ and PG face the need to continue EPS growth if they hope to continue dividend growth.

Colgate Palmolive (CL)

Colgate Palmolive is a leaner competitor to Procter and Gamble. They have the lowest dividend yield and 2012 dividend growth on this list, at 2.45% and 6.9% respectively. The company has been paying consecutively growing dividends since the 1960′s, and currently has a market capitalization of approximately one third of what Procter and Gamble has.

In addition, although Procter and Gamble’s global diversification is impressive, in terms of international sales as a percentage of total sales, Colgate Palmolive actually leads Procter and Gamble. From the 2012 Colgate Report:

Colgate-Palmolive is a very high-quality and diverse international company. Approximately 75% of sales come from outside of North America, and the company defines approximately half of their sales as coming from emerging markets.

The fact that most of the sales of this company come from abroad allows North American investors to participate in the faster growth of some foreign markets. Even among blue-chip American companies that as a group have rather large global exposure, Colgate-Palmolive is ahead of the curve. The company markets their products in over 200 countries and territories, and the Colgate brand has been in Asia for over 50 years and Latin America for over 75 years.

Unfortunately for value investors, Colgate has completely defied the latest market decrease, and went ahead and breached $100 to get a new all-time high. I’d look elsewhere until the stock is a bit less heated.

For a more actionable current investment, this week’s analysis of Philip Morris presents an argument as to why the company is a solid buy at the current price.

Full Disclosure: As of this writing, I am long KO, JNJ, PG, LEG, and EMR.
You can see my dividend portfolio here.

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Philip Morris International: A Solid Buy

Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) is the largest publicly traded international tobacco company in the world, and a solid dividend payer.

For the 2009-2011 period:
-Revenue Growth Rate: 11.4%
-EPS Growth Rate: 22.3%
-Dividend Growth Rate: 12.2%
-Current Dividend Yield: 3.58%
-Balance Sheet: Significant debt, but very stable

Based on the past growth rate and the long-term growth estimates provided by company management, I calculate that the stock is fairly valued at the current price in the mid-$80′s. Due to the diversified and defensive nature of the business, and compared to the value of the markets as a whole, I believe the stock currently represents a decent buy.

Overview

The company’s history stretches back into the 1800′s, but Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) is fairly new as an independent publicly traded company. The business was spun off from what is now called Altria in 2008, to focus on international growth and expansion. PM uses Altria’s brands, and is based in the U.S., but does 100% of its business outside of the U.S.

With 78,000 employees and 56 manufacturing facilities, the company operates 7 of the top 15 global cigarette brands, including the number one brand Marlboro. Their top ten brands by volume are Marlboro, L&M, Fortune, Bond Street, Parliament, Philip Morris, Chesterfield, Sampoerna, Lark, and Dji Sam Soe. According to the company, Marlboro has been the top global cigarette brand for 40 years, and they sold over 300 billion Marlboro cigarettes in 2011, which exceeds the next two largest international cigarette brands combined. Overall, the number of cigarettes sold by Philip Morris International per year is approaching 1 trillion.

In 2011, Philip Morris International reported $9.2 billion in net revenue from the European Union, $7.9 billion in net revenue from the Middle East, $10.7 billion in net revenue from Asia, and $3.3 billion in net revenue from Latin America and Canada. Revenue and income increased in 2011 compared to 2010 for all four of these geographic segments, with Asia leading the pack in terms of growth. Volume, however, has been more mixed. All of the geographic segments besides Asia saw mild declines in volume in 2011 compared to two years ago in 2009, while Asia has seen large volume increases. Total volume is mildly up.

Ratios

Price to Earnings: 17
Price to Free Cash Flow: 16
Price to Book: very high*
Return on Equity: very high*

*due to near-zero equity

Revenue and Free Cash Flow

Philip Morris Revenue Chart
(Chart Source: DividendMonk.com)

I prefer to review and provide a longer operating history, but the first full year for the company as an independently publicly traded business was in 2009. Over this two year period, Philip Morris International has grown revenue at an annualized 11.4% pace, which based on their large size, should be lower than this over a longer period. The company targets 4-6% long-term annual revenue growth, according to a recent presentation. Excise taxes, which total over $40 billion annually, are not included in the revenue chart because those represent an artificial price increase that goes to governments and are not representative of true profit margins and other ratios.

The company, like many tobacco businesses, generates tremendous free cash flows that exceed net income. Selling an addictive product that is mostly based on brand preference, profit margins can be quite high, there is only modest research and development to do, and capital expenditures are very small compared to operating cash flows.

Earnings and Dividends

Philip Morris Dividend Chart
(Chart Source: DividendMonk.com)

EPS has grown by over 22% annually over this period, but this must come down over a longer period. The company targets 10-12% annual EPS growth over the long-term, according to a recent presentation. The dividend grew by a more modest, but still substantial, 12%.

The current dividend yield is 3.58%, and the payout ratio from earnings is currently around 60%.

How PM Spends its Cash

During 2009, 2010, and 2011, Philip Morris International generated about $25.5 billion in free cash flows, and also issued a bit more debt than it repaid. Over this period, they spent about $13.5 billion in dividends, and about $15.5 billion in net share repurchases (repurchases minus issuance of shares). Only a bit over half a billion was spent on net acquisitions over these three years. Overall, it would be preferable from a dividend investor standpoint to spend a bit more on dividends and a bit less on repurchases, but overall, PM handles its cash fairly well in my view. The free cash flow finds its way to investors in the form of dividend income or greater company ownership.

Balance Sheet

Most tobacco companies, including Philip Morris International, have a great deal of debt on their balance sheets. With an addicted customer base, low input costs, and fairly recession-resistant products, they can safely take on substantial leverage.

Strong balance sheets are a pillar of my investment approach, but strong is relative to the industry. The company has certain lousy debt metrics, such as a total debt/equity ratio of nearly 200 (off the charts, basically), which is due to having close to zero book value and substantial debt levels. The near-zero book value includes nearly $10 billion in goodwill, so the tangible book value is actually negative. But total debt/income is far more reasonable at under 2.5, and the interest coverage ratio is over 15, which is extremely solid. So while the company has substantial debt levels, their overall financial position is quite solid.

Investment Thesis

Philip Morris International has an envious position. They’re based in the U.S., but their business operates strictly outside of the U.S. So while tobacco companies that operate wholly in the United States, such as Altria, face consolidated regulatory risks, Philip Morris international, with its highly diversified geographic position, is buffered from strong regulatory or litigation risks from any specific region. Advertising limitations, excise taxes, and government relationships with their company, are diverse rather than consolidated, and they have full exposure to international and emerging market growth.

In addition, Philip Morris International focuses on premium brands, and so their profit margins are substantial. 7 of the top 15 international cigarette brands are operated by the company, including the world’s flagship cigarette brand Marlboro.

Their free cash flow is enormous due to low amounts of required input costs, and they use this free cash flow basically entirely for dividends and share repurchases.

The company targets 1% long-term volume growth, 4-6% long term annual revenue growth, and 10-12% long term EPS growth. Combined with a 3+% dividend yield, long-term investment returns have solid potential.

Risks

In addition to the usual currency risks and commodity price risks, two key risks for tobacco companies are: reduction in interest in their products, and increases in regulations. In some areas, smoking is on the decline, which of course directly affects the volume of product sales. Regulators can reduce advertising allowance for, increase taxes on, and otherwise impede tobacco companies. In some ways, decreasing advertising can “lock in” the key brands by keeping competition away, but it also makes it difficult to continually establish top brands.

For Philip Morris International, the risks are reduced. With global operations in almost every country outside of the U.S., the regulators from any one country only pose a mild threat. When smoking volume falls in one country, it may rise in another. Having such a broad reach reduces each individual risk.

Conclusion and Valuation

The long-term growth targets for the company are appealing. 10-12% annual EPS growth combined with a 3+% dividend yield is ambitious. Only 4-6% annual revenue growth and 1% annual volume growth are estimated to be necessary to produce this result. This highlights the importance of returning cash to shareholders- much of this total return will come from taking the free cash flow and using it to pay dividends or buy back shares, and all of it is based on fairly mild volume growth and moderate price increases on that volume in emerging markets.

The performance of the company since the spin off has been excellent, the long-term goals are stated, and analysts currently predict a mean of approximately 10% annual EPS growth for 2012 and 2013.

In order to justify the current valuation with discounted cash flow analysis, a 4% long-term free cash flow growth rate and 10% discount rate is sufficient. Using the dividend discount model, sustained dividend growth of 8% per year is necessary to justify the current valuation even with a 12% discount rate. Considering that the company looks for 4-6% revenue growth and 10-12% EPS growth, it appears that the current valuation is therefore tuned to the low end, or slightly below the low-end, of the goals, implying a mild margin of safety on a solid international company.

PM has enjoyed a nice stock run-up over the last few years, but this run-up has been supported by solid performance and growth. Considering that by broad metrics like Capitalization/GDP and Shiller P/E, the market is a bit heated currently in terms of valuation, I think PM represents one of the stronger dividend growth investments out there. The valuation at the current price in the mid-$80′s, based on the above-described methods of calculation, is currently fair.

Full Disclosure: As of this writing, I have no position in PM.
You can see my dividend portfolio here.

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Weekend Reading 5/5/2012

Here are some good articles from around the web.

Becton Dickinson Analysis
D4L Analyzed Becton Dickinson and concluded it was a 4-star strong stock.

Four Dividend Paying Companies With Long Term Growth Plans
Dividend Growth Investor provides info on some of the stronger dividend stocks.

Three Stocks to Buy on Weakness
Dividend Mantra points out three very strong companies that are a bit pricey, and would be great at lower prices. All of three of them are extremely robust, which is why the market is paying up for them, currently.

TSX Dividend Stocks
The Dividend Guy is a good source for Canadian dividend stocks.

Telecoms
Defensiven has been loading up on telecom stocks. It’s now his portfolio’s largest sector. Personally, I think that if you’re looking for high yields currently, telecoms and MLPs are the way to go. Regular utilities (in aggregate, not every single one), on the other hand, are generally expensive. Scan through some of Defensiven’s recent posts for info on good European telecom stocks.

5 Stock Portfolio
A Road Paved with Dividends lists his portfolio, and it currently consists of five holdings. All of them have at least 3% dividend yields as of the current writing. Check out which five companies he let into his portfolio.

Railway Battle
The Passive Income Earner compared Canadian National Railway, to Canadian Pacific.

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